Luck

The role of chance in entrepreneurial and investing outcomes. In On the Nature of Long-Term Holds, the authors warn that a past entrepreneurial success does not guarantee the next — many experienced, well-capitalized entrepreneurs fail to replicate prior wins — and Kyle’s adjacent note asks how one might “increase your capacity to get lucky.”

Where this appears

• On the Nature of Long-Term Holds — the caution that prior success is not repeatable, and the question of how to expand one’s surface area for good luck.
• The Luck Field Manual — Polymath Investor’s 33 rules for widening your “luck surface area” (October 2026); a practitioner’s answer to the question of how to increase your capacity to get lucky.