The Election (Marginal Revolution)

Summary

A very short post, characteristic of Cowen’s overnight reaction format. Two parts:

Procedural verdict. The election went fine procedurally. Cowen says the people who predicted the end of American democracy now look foolish and misunderstood how the country works; in his view democracy was never under threat this cycle and the US was not at risk of fascism.

Status ledger. A list of what rose and fell:

• Rising: Matt Yglesias (socially moderate Democrats did very well); “normie” social-science findings on campaign finance (a nod to the research showing big money has limited effect on outcomes); Nate Silver’s predictions.
• Falling: tariffs; corruption; the war with Iran; wealth taxes (losing in California); gerrymandering, which backfired on Republicans in a blue wave.

The post drew 248 comments within a day. The top replies pushed back on the central claim: one asked how you would tell “it was never in danger” apart from “it was in danger and the people who worried saved it,” and another listed “falling” names Cowen left out, including Thiel, Musk and The Free Press. Commenters also added crypto, AI and data centers to the falling list. (The comments are reader reactions, not Cowen’s argument.)

Notable quotes

“Procedurally it seems to have gone just fine, and the people predicting ‘the end of democracy in America’ now look foolish.”

How it connects

• Tyler Cowen · Marginal Revolution — author and blog.
• Democracy — the “democracy in danger” argument he is rebutting.
• Campaign Finance — the “normie” result that money matters less than people think; compare Warzel’s $500 Million Bought Elon Nothing on Musk’s ~$474 million failing to buy outcomes.
• Matt Yglesias — named as rising in status.
• Same-day reads on the midterms: AI on the Ballot (Ben Thompson) and The Midterm Postmortem (Curtis Yarvin).