The 2020

Author: Peter Turchin on Cliodynamica URL: http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/the_2020/ One-line: The causes of revolutions resemble those of earthquakes — slow-building “pressures” plus a sudden “trigger” — and the trigger itself is nearly impossible to predict.

Key claims

• The causes of rebellions and revolutions resemble the processes behind earthquakes and forest fires. It’s useful to distinguish “pressures” (structural conditions that build up slowly) from “triggers” (sudden releasing events that immediately precede the eruption).
• Specific triggers are difficult, perhaps impossible, to predict with precision. US police already killed ~400 people in the first five months of 2020 — black and white, men and women, criminals and law-abiding. “Why was it the murder of George Floyd that sparked the wave of protests?”

How it connects

• Peter Turchin / Cliodynamica — author and publication; cliodynamics applied to the 2020 unrest.