Stop It. Get Some Help. (Steve Ruddock)

Steve Ruddock’s analysis of the Kalshi / Tunica-Biloxi Tribe partnership in prediction markets, framed as the latest iteration of a “divide the tribes” strategy that has consistently failed in California and elsewhere.

Connections

Prediction Markets have a deepening tribal conflict: the CFTC issued a new no-action letter allowing software developers to offer access to regulated trading venues without registering, and specifically opening a path for Native American tribes to enter prediction markets through partnerships with existing operators. The Tunica-Biloxi Tribe of Louisiana moved immediately, launching SaltTrade Derivatives in partnership with Kalshi.

The IGA (Indian Gaming Association) Chairman David Z. Bean called this a “divide-and-conquer strategy” — using tribal sovereignty language against tribes by offering them a sliver of the prediction market upside to neutralize unified tribal opposition. California Nations Indian Gaming Association Chairman James Siva went further, noting the Ninth Circuit just reaffirmed that sports-event contracts constitute Class III gaming under IGRA, meaning the CFTC’s pathway doesn’t change the underlying legal reality.

Ruddock’s argument, grounded in California history: this playbook has been tried against tribes by PokerStars (online poker), DraftKings/FanDuel (2022), sweepstakes operators, and now prediction markets. It never gets tribal support — it gets a single tribe, which galvanizes the others. The tribes with political clout in California are the ones that get activated, not bought.

The broader legal scoreboard from the article: Kalshi has lost 14 consecutive federal court rulings since the Minnesota decision; states have prevailed on 37 of 43 court rulings on preliminary injunctions, TROs, or stays pending appeal (86% success rate).

Roundup items in the newsletter also cover: UK considering a gambling ad ban; Deutsche Bank warning that franchise valuations may not sustain upward trajectory as media rights money shifts; Missouri AG sending C&Ds to every prediction market operator in the state; Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate proposing a ban on elected officials trading prediction markets.

Key figures

• Tarek Mansour — Kalshi CEO, published an “open letter” to tribes framing the partnership as advancing tribal economic self-determination
• Marshall Pierite — Chairman/CEO, Tunica-Biloxi Tribe of Louisiana
• David Z. Bean — IGA Chairman, opposed the CFTC letter as a transparent divide-and-conquer attempt
• James Siva — CNIGA Chairman, called Tunica-Biloxi’s decision “profoundly disappointing”

NY sportsbook data (Week 1 NFL 2026)

Per the newsletter’s Chris Altruda analysis: NY mobile sports betting revenue $16.96M for Week 1, at a 2.85% hold — seventh lowest in 245 weeks. Handle was $594.59M (6th-highest ever, up 12.7% YoY), but revenue was down 44.5%. FanDuel and DraftKings both exceeded $200M in handle. Third straight year NY sportsbooks couldn’t reach 7% hold in NFL Week 1.