Kyle Harrison
to-read
Predictions
Predictions: Society's Telltale Signature Reveals the Past and Forecasts the Future
- Author
- Theodore Modis
- Published
- 1992
- Pages
- 300
- Recommended
- Once
Why it’s on the list: The case that growth in markets, technologies and creative output follows S-curves that can be fitted and projected. It is the opposite pole from The Black Swan.
Where I heard about it
- Cited in Out of Control. Kevin Kelly: “I follow the work of Theodore Modis, whose 1992 book, Predictions, nicely sums up the case for utility and believability of predictions.”
About the book
Published by Simon & Schuster in 1992. Kelly summarizes its three “pockets” of prediction as invariants, growth curves and cyclic waves, and quotes Modis: “The predictive power of S-curves is neither magical nor worthless. What is hidden under the graceful shape of the S-curve is that fact that natural growth obeys a strict law.”
Connections
- Out of Control — where it is cited.
- The Black Swan — the opposing view of how knowable the future is.
- Kevin Kelly