Market Cycles

Market cycles are the recurring swings between exuberance and contraction in public and private markets. Saved tweets capture several turns of the cycle as they happened.

• 2020, the retail surge. Josh Wolfe opens a thread with “I have no idea if the current zeitgeist lasts 2 days, 2 weeks, 2 months or 2 years,” then argues both for it lasting longer (record retail inflows across regions) and shorter.
• 2022, the downturn. Tren Griffin writes that anyone 35 or under in tech has probably never seen a down market, and describes a feedback loop in which one investor turning down the funding dial or one CEO cutting burn may cause others to do the same. Keith Rabois, in a clip shared by Deirdre Bosa, says he had been calling it “a fully fledged dotcom crash.” Jeff Richards argues most private tech companies “overhired” and that valuations in 2021 were too high, and that downturns filter for stronger companies. Jason Lemkin’s November 2022 summary says 85%+ of Series B and later investing “has simply ceased.”
• 2025, the warning. Ed Sim posts a Gordon Gekko clip with the note that it is “that time in the cycle to remind ourselves wow this is starting to get nuts.”
• A pattern from the memos. A thread of lessons from 500+ pages of Howard Marks’s memos includes a three-stage bubble model: the far-sighted believe improvement is possible, most believe it is underway, and everyone believes it lasts forever.

Books to read filed here: The Art of Speculation (Carret, 1930), Wealth, War and Wisdom (Biggs, 2008), Memo to Oaktree Clients (Marks), 1929 (Sorkin) (2025). See also Financial History, Survival Lessons From Past Tech Downturns.

Where this appears

• Tweets: 1- I Have No Idea… (tweet), My summary of Venture Markets… (tweet), I Read 500+ Pages of… (tweet), 1- I’m Older Than 35… (tweet), Kinda Jarring to Hear a… (tweet), Feeling Like That Time In… (tweet), Most Private Tech Cos “overhired”… (tweet)
• Books to read: 1929 (Sorkin), Memo to Oaktree Clients, The Art of Speculation, Wealth, War and Wisdom