China - Domestic Change and Foreign Policy
| Author | Michael D. Swaine with Donald P. Henry |
|---|---|
| Published | 1995 |
| Format | Report |
| Original | Read the original |
TL;DR — A 1995 RAND study for the Pentagon on how China’s domestic politics, military, society and economy were likely to shape its foreign policy over the next 10–15 years.
A RAND National Defense Research Institute report (MR-604), sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Michael D. Swaine, then a RAND China specialist, asks whether the changes inside China since the late 1970s could turn its foreign policy against U.S. interests in Asia.
It treats domestic trends as the independent variables: the leadership succession after Deng and the role of the military in the Party (with data on military cadres in the Central Committee), social change, and the economy (trade growth, provincial income gaps and fiscal strains). The summary concludes that domestic change over the next ten to fifteen years would almost certainly not produce a significant shift in China’s foreign policy.
What it is: a government-sponsored policy study from a leading think tank, now a historical snapshot of mid-1990s U.S. thinking about China. RAND hosts the free PDF.
Where this came from
- A copy saved in October 2026.
- Public copy: https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR604.html
155 pages. A copy is archived locally against link rot; the header links the original source.